Subscription Revenue Forecaster
Model your funnel, pricing, and churn — see your 12-month MRR trajectory, cash flow, and growth ceiling.
How to Use This Calculator
Start by choosing your funnel type — direct paid (visitors convert straight to paid) or free trial (visitors become trialists, then convert). Each model uses different conversion levers, so pick the one that matches how you actually acquire customers.
Next, fill in your acquisition inputs: monthly traffic or leads, conversion rates at each funnel stage, and any paid acquisition spend if applicable. The calculator derives your monthly new paid subscribers from these inputs, so it reflects your real acquisition economics rather than an assumed flat number.
In the pricing and plan mix section, define your tiers and what percentage of subscribers land on each. This gives you a blended ARPU that drives accurate MRR math. If you offer both monthly and annual plans, weight the mix accordingly — annual subscribers lower your effective monthly churn significantly.
Finally, set your churn rate. This is the most sensitive input in the model — a 1% reduction in monthly churn has an outsized effect on 12-month MRR and your growth ceiling. The output shows you the ceiling you're trending toward and exactly which month growth starts to plateau.
Understanding Your Projection
The projection output surfaces four key metrics that tell the full unit economics story of your subscription business:
Growth Ceiling MRR
The maximum MRR your business can sustain at current acquisition and churn rates. Beyond this point, churn cancels every new subscriber you add.
LTV:CAC Ratio
Customer lifetime value divided by customer acquisition cost. Above 3:1 is generally healthy for SaaS; below 1:1 means you lose money on every customer acquired.
CAC Payback Period
How many months until a new customer recovers their acquisition cost through gross profit contribution. Under 12 months is strong; over 24 months creates serious cash flow risk.
Subscription Financial Benchmarks
How do your projections compare to typical subscription businesses? Use these benchmarks to calibrate your inputs and identify where your unit economics deviate from the norm.
| Metric | B2B SaaS | B2C | Media / Newsletter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly Churn | 1–3% | 5–8% | 4–7% |
| Trial → Paid | 15–25% | 5–15% | 3–10% |
| LTV:CAC | 3:1 – 5:1 | 2:1 – 4:1 | 2:1 – 3:1 |
| CAC Payback | 6–18 months | 3–12 months | 3–9 months |
These are directional benchmarks. Your specific niche, price point, and acquisition channel will shift all of these numbers. Use the calculator to model your actual inputs rather than benchmarks.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I model my subscription acquisition funnel?
Enter your monthly traffic or leads at the top of the funnel, then set conversion rates for each stage — visitor to trial, trial to paid, and so on. The calculator supports both direct paid and free-trial funnel types. You can also set paid vs. organic traffic splits and cost-per-click to model CAC alongside conversion.
How does the multi-tier pricing model work?
You can define up to three pricing tiers (e.g., Starter, Pro, Enterprise) with different monthly prices and subscriber mix percentages. The calculator blends these into a weighted ARPU that drives your MRR projections. This reflects reality better than a single average price, especially if you offer a free tier or annual discounts.
What is the Growth Ceiling MRR shown in the projection?
Growth Ceiling MRR is the maximum recurring revenue your business can sustain given your current acquisition rate and churn rate. It is calculated as: (Monthly New Paid Subscribers / Monthly Churn Rate) × Blended ARPU. As you approach this ceiling, net subscriber growth approaches zero — the calculator shows you exactly when that happens over your 12-month window.
How accurate are 12-month subscription financial projections?
Projections are only as accurate as the inputs. The model assumes steady acquisition, constant churn, and stable pricing — which rarely holds perfectly in practice. Use the output as a directional planning tool, not a precise forecast. The most valuable use is sensitivity analysis: see how a 1% churn improvement or 20% acquisition increase changes your trajectory, and prioritize accordingly.
Get the playbook every Thursday
Weekly strategies for subscription businesses. Real companies, real numbers, tactics you can steal. From the operator who grew Codecademy from $10M to $50M ARR.